munneypicks

The Masters 2016

Tournament: The season starts here. We’ve had some good golf to watch so far this season but for many golf fans, the season starts right here this week. Magnolia Lane, Rae’s Creek, Amen Corner, the Green Jacket, this is all a golf fan’s dream. The Masters is almost the first thing a player mentions when he wins a tournament on the PGA TOUR nowadays. Not the 2 year exemption, or the million dollar pay day, but the opportunity to play in the first major of the year. And this tournament deserves all the recognition it gets.  We’ve had plenty of drama via a playoff in the past. Epic collapses on Sundays  (Both Rory & Greg Norman). Tiger announcing to the world that he had arrived in 1997. The place is just electric. The Masters started in 1934 at Augusta National Golf Club. There is a par 3 tournament on Wednesday, a dinner served by the former champion on Tuesday (which I have heard will be Texas BBQ this year), and a limited invitation only field as always. There have been many changes to the course and tournament over the years, but the history runs as deep as anywhere outside of the Open Championship in my opinion. Winners from the past 11 years are below:

2015 – Jordan Spieth (-18)
2014 – Bubba Watson (-8)
2013 – Adam Scott (-9)
2012 – Bubba Watson (-10)
2011 – Charl Schwartzel (-14)
2010 – Phil Mickleson (-16)
2009 – Angel Cabrera (-12)
2008 – Trevor Immelman (-8)
2007 – Zach Johnson (+1)
2006 – Phil Mickleson (-7)
2005 – Tiger Woods (-12)

Field: Augusta has strict criteria when selecting its’ field for the upcoming Masters. Past Masters champions are always invited. Winners of qualifying PGA TOUR events within the last year and the top 50 players in the world as well. US, Lat-Am, & European amateur champions will be here as well. Essentially, anybody who’s anybody is in Augusta right now. From Jordan to Jason to Phil to Rory. You name them, they’re there.

What to Look For: There are some hard and fast rules to live by when it comes to the Masters that make it a little easier to break down the field. Firstly, other than the first two Masters champions, only Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 has won the Masters on his first attempt. So players making their debut are automatically axed from my book. Secondly, some of the past champions have no chance here. Mark O’Mera, Ian Woosnam are two that come to mind. They are just here because who turns down an Augusta invite? Also, no one has won here after missing the cut in their previous appearance since Tiger in 1997. Tiger is more an exception than a rule, so I find that to be a solid angle here. Augusta has the trickiest greens and nuances players will ever see. Knowing them well is certainly key to success here. Lastly, is distance. Looking at the past champions, eight of the eleven above are long players. Zach Johnson won in an odd year where +1 won the tournament and while I won’t completely disregard shorter players, it is known that they’re at a disadvantage here. The par 5’s are crucial at Augusta and playing them well is the way to win here. The key is holding your own on the other 14 holes on the course. Par 5 scoring will be very important as well. The key stat I liked most was Stroked Gained Tee to Green. The PGA TOUR has data on this back to 2004. Only twice since then has the champion finished the year outside the top 30 in that category. Zach Johnson and Trevor Immelman. In summation, play the par 5’s well, hit it far, and take cover on the other 14 holes. Another point I want to make is past success at Augusta. Finding players who have shot in the 60’s in the past is mandatory. Zach Johnson won without previously shooting in the 60’s but other champion in the past 11 years have done so.

Picks:

Rickie Fowler to Win – Fowler is my top pick this year as I feel the head of the market is a bit overpriced with maybe the exception of Day. Day certainly loves Augusta and is playing some remarkable golf, but 7/1 is a bit light for a Major with the best players in the world at your heels. Spieth and Rory aren’t showing the best form now so I have no problem passing on them at current prices. That isn’t to say they can’t win this, I just don’t find value in them this week. Fowler does have value though in my opinion. He seems like a changed player since moving to Butch Harmon and winning a couple of times last summer. He wants to be among the best. You won’t see many guys crying after they lose the Waste Management Open, but Fowler did just that in a display of passion for winning tournaments. Fowler has all the tools to win here. He isn’t the longest player, but will be above average in distance off the tee this week I’m sure. He’s finished in the top 12 the last two years and a major victory is sure to be his sometime soon. I think this year is it.

Justin Rose e/w – Rosie is an Augusta specialist. Look at his past performances and I have no doubt that he can win here. He’s only finished outside the top 25 once since 2004. That is a very impressive record around this track and a 2nd place finish last year allowed him to sniff victory here, even just for a second. Rose is a major winner and is playing great golf as he has four top 20 finishes in his last 4 stroke play starts. Expect Rose to be near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Hideki Matsuyama e/w – This is a bit of a speculative play, but you need to be a bit speculative to find big winners in these tournaments. Hideki is a bit overlooked it seems because he doesn’t win as much as a Spieth or a Day, but Hideki is just 22 and has 2 PGA TOUR wins to his credit already. We backed Hideki last year to a top 5 finish and he truly has the game to repeat and even better that performance. Matsuyama has won already this year in Phoenix and sans Stenson, may be the best ball striker in the world. At a place where finding greens is paramount, Hideki should excel. 

Rickie Fowler to win 3.5u @ 17/1
Justin Rose e/w* 2.0u @ 25/1
Hideki Matsuyama e/w* 1.25u @ 40/1

*If your book does not offer e/w betting, place 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to win and 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to place top 5

Chris Munney
@munneypicks