munneypicks

2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Tournament: For the 4th week in a row, the top players in the world will be in Florida for another tournament. This will conclude the Florida swing as the TOUR will move play to Texas next week for the exciting, if not un-betable Dell match play. We are coming up on the Masters and some former winners are starting to show some form, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Scott, and Bubba Watson. The “Big Four” will need to get it in gear over the next few weeks if they expect to snatch the first major of the yer as none of them seem to be on top of their game this year.

Course: This week the TOUR is heading to Arnie’s place. Bay Hill, outside of Orlando, FL will be hosting the Arnold Palmer Invitational for yet another year. This tournament has been played at Bay Hill since 1979. This is one of Tiger’s courses. He has won here 8 times in the last 15 years. That being said, not many golfers have enjoyed much success here, but 2014 has been a crazy year so far so who can say?

Bay Hill is a par 72 that stretches just over 7,400 yards. This Dick Wilson design isn’t a pushover track but scores can be had on the course as every won last year at -19.

Past Winners:

2015 – Matt Every
2014 – Matt Every
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Martin Laird
2010 – Ernie Els

Field: Day, McIlroy, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose…the stars will be out. Note that field is limited to 120 players. Should be a fun week.

What to Look For: This course will play similar to the other courses in the Florida swing being that bermuda grass in prominent here. Recent form can tell us a lot about how players perform in these conditions. If you look at the list of winners above, all of them had a top 10 finish on the Florida Swing before their win at Bay Hill with the exception of Every last year. This is very telling and I think with this being the fourth week of playing on these Bermuda greens, and some players have acclimated well to Florida golf. 8 time winner Tiger was also a long time resident of Orlando.  A lot of players will use this tournament as the final hoorah before taking their talents to Augusta National.  Another point of note is that it is not easy to win this tournament in your debut. All the par 3’s are over 200 yards, so sticking long irons will be key here. As will making birdies.

Picks:

Henrik Stenson to win: Yes I picked Stenson last year. Yes he pretty much choked on the last 6 holes. Yes I have trust issues with him. But this course is such a good fit for him. One of the best tee to green players in the world. He’s also an Orlando resident. Here’s to hoping he can redeem himself from last year’s disappointment.

Ryan Moore e/w*: Moore should have won last week. Simple as that. He was playing beautiful golf and now has 3 top 11 finishes in his last 4 starts. Moore also has a top 5 at Bay Hill but has never come in playing this well. Moore is 18th SG:T2G so far this year and there’s no reason he shouldn’t contend here.

Paul Casey e/w*: Casey is a player who arrives here off the back of a top 10 at Doral and comes to a course that I believe should suit his game a bit better than Doral did. Casey is a great long iron player and very good tee to green. He doesn’t have the best record here, but does have a top 15 finish at Bay Hill to his name.

Smylie Kaufman e/w*: Kaufman is one of the better fits statistically in the field. A bit surprising but when you look at his game closely, it seems he should fare well here at Arnie’s place. At these odds, he’s worth a flyer.
Henrik Stenson to win 2u @ 13/1
Ryan Moore e/w* 1.25u @ 35/1
Paul Casey e/w* 1u @ 38/1
Smylie Kaufman e/w* 0.5u @ 120/1

*If your book does not offer e/w betting, place 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to win and 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to place top 5

Chris Munney
@munneypicks