munneypicks

2016 Valspar Championship

Tournament: Still in the Florida swing, we move to the west coast of Florida this week for the 2016 Valspar Championship.

Course: All four rounds will be played on the Copperhead course. The Copperhead course is a par 71 that stretches just over 7,300 yards. Innisbrook is known for its’ tree lined fairways and requiring a bit of shotmaking on several holes. In a stark contrast to Doral, water only comes into play on about 4 holes here. Players will finish their rounds at “The Snake Pit”, one of the toughest finishes in all of golf. Copperhead is truly a course that will test all aspects of your game. Jordan Spieth was able to secure a victory here last year by after getting up and down on 16, 17, & 18 and then besting Sean O’Hair and Patrick Reed in a playoff. Bermuda grass on the greens once again this week.

Field: World #1 Jordan Spieth is in the field. Along with Patrick Reed, Henrik Stenson, and the red hot Danny Willett.

What to Look For: Innisbrook does not seem to favor any one type of player very strongly. This is proven by looking at the past champions here. Gary Woodland is a bomber. Luke Donald is a great putter. Jim Furyk has a great iron game. No one skill will propel you to victory at Innisbrook. A good all around game is required to win here. Out of the long list of Innisbrook champions, none have come out of nowhere. It takes off the tee discipline, a strong iron game, scrambling ability, and great putting to join the winners circle here. Some stats I’m looking at this week are Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Bogey Avoidance, and Par 5 Scoring.

Picks:

Jason Dufner e/w*: Dufner showed a lot of muscle last week finishing just outside the top 10 at a bombers course. He’s finished in the top 25 in his last 4 starts here even when he was in a bit of a slump last season.

Webb Simpson e/w*: Simpson actually has gained strokes putting here. Can you believe that? While hard to believe, it’s true. And as we know, Webb is one of the best tee to green players in golf. And he has to be a bit inspired by Adam Scott’s run with the short putter.

Graeme McDowell e/w*: McDowell makes his debut here, so that is certainly a bit of a negative. However, he comes in off a very strong performance at the Honda Classic, another Florida shotmakers course. G-Mac is 12th this season in par 5 scoring and 3rd in bogey avoidance.
Jason Dufner e/w* 1.75u @ 28/1
Webb Simpson e/w* 1.0u @ 45/1
Graeme McDowell e/w* 1.5u @ 35/1

*If your book does not offer e/w betting, place 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to win and 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to place top 5

Chris Munney
@munneypicks