munneypicks

Tournament: Even though this is the 2nd WGC event of the 2015-16 season, the last one was in October…so who even remembers that? This is the first WGC event of 2016 and part of the Florida swing that we are now in the thick of. This tournament has been held here since 2007 and seems to have found a permanent home here at Trump’s Doral.

Course: The Blue Monster at Doral. Certainly one of the most polarizing courses on TOUR. Probably even more so after a Gil Hanse redesign in early 2014. Keegan Bradley practically ripped the course after bogeying 18 last year. The main complaint is that you need to drive the ball 300 yards and in the fairway to even stand a chance here. While I have never played the course, last year’s leaderboard doesn’t particularly dispute Keegan’s claim. Last year’s top 10 includes, Dustin Johnson, J.B. Holmes, Bubba, Stenson, Sergio, Adam Scott, Oosthuizen, and Rory. Absolute bombers. Patrick Reed happened to win here in 2014 and while Reed isn’t a bomber, he is still an above average PGA TOUR player when it comes to driver distance. The course plays to over 7,500 yards but does contain four par 5’s that players absolutely must take advantage of because the rest of the course is incredibly difficult. DJ played the par 5’s at 6-under last year and won the tournament at 9-under to get a sense for the other 56 holes he played throughout the week.

Field: Only about 70 players are eligible to play in this event that will see no 36 hole cut. But we will see defending champion Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson, Henrik Stenson and many more. This will be one of the best fields you will see all season long.

What to Look For:  After watching how players have played on the redesign, I will try to stay away from below average players when it comes to distance off the tee. It will be tough to overcome the length, especially with world class bombers like Rory and Bubba in the field. Recent form is also a key. Dustin Johnson was the first player to win here coming off of a missed cut. And even though he missed the cut at last years Honda Classic, he did lose in a playoff at the Northern Trust Open a week before that. That being said, no player has won at Doral without a top 15 finish in their last two stroke play events. So this is not the place to find your form.

Picks:

Bubba Watson to win: Can Bubba go back to back with wins? I think so. After winning the Northern Trust Open in 2014, he finished T2 here at Doral. If it wasn’t for such a slow start to the week, he might’ve come away with a victory. This is a sweet spot in the schedule for Bubba as he seems to like the Waste Management, Riviera, Doral, and Bay Hill. All that leads up to Augusta which I’m sure he has his eye on. As far as stats go, Bubba and DJ are in a league of their own when it comes to this course. I just slightly prefer Bubba here as it will be a bit harder to defend I believe for DJ.

Henrik Stenson e/w: This course requires length (Henrik has that by the boatloads), great iron play (Henrik may be the best in the game), and the ability to make birdies (Henrik is world class there as well). His record here was spotty, but since the redesign, he has fared very well. Even finishing 4th here last year. He’s coming off a great desert swing on the Euro Tour and should go well here.

J.B. Holmes e/w: Holmes is simply playing the most consistent golf of his career right now. He’s finished in the top 11 in four straight starts and finished 2nd here last year. This course suits Holmes’ game and he mentioned in interviews that he enjoys the course much more after the redesign. Holmes ranked 5th last year in driving distance.

Brooks Koepka e/w: After the class of DJ and Bubba is a list of a few golfers whose stats suit this course well. Brooks is certainly on that second tier. Brooks ranked 8th last year in Driving Distance and 7th in Par 5 Scoring. He has some experience at Doral and being from Florida gives him a slight edge over another player I really like at this pricing, Justin Thomas. Koepka also has three top 10 finishes in his last five starts. This is certainly a course where he can find his 2nd win of his career.

Bubba Watson to win 3u @ 13/1
Henrik Stenson e/w* 1.75u @ 28/1
J.B. Holmes e/w* 1.5u @ 33/1
Brooks Koepka e/w* 1.25u @ 40/1

*If your book does not offer e/w betting, place 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to win and 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to place top 5