munneypicks

2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Tournament: Back to California for a two week stint that starts in NorCal and will end in SoCal. This weeks AT&T tournament is played in the beautiful Monterrey Peninsula area of California and will spend two days on one of the most iconic courses in golf; Pebble Beach. This is a pro-am format, similar to what we saw a few weeks ago at the Career Builder. This will also be the last week for a long stretch where rounds will be played on different courses. A format that I’m not particularly fond of.

Course: Somewhere I can speak from experience! I had to slide that in as I visited the area late last year and played 2 of the 3 courses the golfers will see this week. Pebble Beach will be the final course on Sunday for those who do make that cut. Spyglass Hill, Monterrey Peninsula Country Club (Shore Course), and Pebble Beach will be played over the 1st 3 days by all the golfers. Spyglass will be the toughest test of the 3 and is the least exposed to the ocean. We should expect pretty low scores however as the course still needs to be set up in a way that is playable for all of the amateurs that will be on the course.

Pebble Beach – Par 72 – 6800 Yards
Spyglass Hill – Par 72 – 7000 Yards
Monterrey Peninsula – Par 71 – 6800 Yards

Field: The biggest field I can remember at this tournament in a long time. Spieth, Bubba, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker, Patrick Reed, and Brooks Koepka are all in the field. Not a lot of international flavor, but the elite American players have certainly shown up.

What to Look For: There are a few important factors in play this week. The four that top my list are par 4 scoring, par 5 scoring, recent performance, and historical performance. Looking back at winners, you would notice that almost all have had top 25 finishes in recent starts at Pebble Beach and they have mostly all have had success in the year of their win. This eliminates a good portion of the field. The par 4’s on these courses are tough and it will be a challenge to play these under par. It could be the key to the week. Making birdies and putting on poa annua greens are also factors that will need to be considered. Some players simply like it here and have great course history and that has proven to yield the future winners here as well.

Picks:

Jason Day to win: I originally picked Dustin Johnson here but as his price moved and Day’s drifted, there is simply tons of value on Day here. People are likely scared off by his missed cut 2 weeks ago, but that came at a time where Day was ill and I am more than willing to write that off as simply a week he should not of teed it off. We likely won’t see this price on Day in a field that doesn’t have Stenson or Rickie or Rory again this year if he’s as motivated as last year. Day is a bomber who can putt well and has done well at Pebble in the past.

Jimmy Walker to win: Jimmy is another player who has found success here. Walker clearly loves the West Coast and Texas as all 5 of his wins have come in California, Hawaii, or Texas. Walker ranked in the top 10 last year in Par 5 scoring and 11th in Birdie or Better percentage. He’s a good putter that seems to like the greens at Pebble.

Ryan Moore e/w: Moore came back from a long layoff to finish a strong 11th place in Phoenix last week. Moore doesn’t have a spectacular record at Pebble but he’s done a respectable job here in the past and I think would have a good game for a course with small greens. Moore is a winner four times over on TOUR and should have the chops to get it done if it comes down to a late Sunday finish.

Bryce Molder e/w: Molder is a bit of a journeyman who only has 1 win on TOUR. But it did come in California. And Molder’s record at Pebble clearly shows he has an affinity for this place as he’s racked up 4 top 12 finishes in his last 6 starts. Molder also showed form last week as he finished 6th in Phoenix. This is good value for a player who seems to like Pebble and is currently playing some good golf.

3.5u Jason Day to win @ 10/1
2u Jimmy Walker to win @ 17/1
0.75u Ryan Moore e/w* @ 66/1
0.75u Bryce Molder e/w* @ 85/1

*If your book does not offer e/w betting, place 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to win and 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to place top 5