munneypicks

2015 FedEx St, Jude Classic

Tournament: This week we have what is the final appetizer before what is the National Championship in America, the U.S. Open. This week is the FedEx St. Jude Classic which is annually held at the TPC Southwind in Memphis Tennessee. Players will have one of the tougest non-major challenges they face on TOUR at a par 70 track that many players are fond of. TPC Southwind is a track where both accurate players like Justin Leonard and David Toms have seen the winners circle, but also bombers like Dustin Johnson and Harris English have had success as well. You need to be a good iron player as Southwind has some small greens that may prove difficult to find throughout the week for some. A list of champions and winning scores below:

2014 – Ben Crane (-10)
2013 – Harris English (-12)
2012 – Dustin Johnson (-9)
2011 – Harrison Frazer (-13)
2010 – Lee Westwood (-10)

Field: Because of the placement on the PGA TOUR schedule, especially with the U.S. Open being in the pacific northwest this year, this field is particularly weak. This is evidenced by Dustin Johnson leading the betting market at 6/1. Many players are taking the week of in prep for next weeks major, but some players such as Webb Simpson, Phil Mickleson, and Billy Horschel have made their way to Memphis.

What to Look For: This is one of the few weeks on TOUR where stats can ALMOST be thrown out the window. Regression shows weak correlation between stats and the winners circle when you look at the usual indicating stats for tournament winners. Par 4 scoring is one that does stand out a bit though. This makes sense as TPC Soutwind is a par 70 with only 2 par 5’s. Players won’t be able to feast on these par 5’s as the usually do on par 72 courses. This is also a course where debutants have had their fare share of success so we should not be scared off by a lack of course experience. Both English and DJ won on their debut here. Another smaller trend to observe here may be recent play. Of the last 5 winners here, 4 of them had booked a top 20 finish in one of their previous two starts. So in summation, we’re looking for a great par 4 player who can play his short irons and wedges well and may have played well in recent tournaments. Not a lot to narrow down the field, but it’s enough to make educated decisions whilst making our selections.

Picks:

Billy Horschel to Win: Course form meets recent form. Billy has two consecutive top 10 finishes at TPC Southwind and two consecutive top 15 finishes this season. Billy has stated that this is one of his top 5 courses on TOUR and his play has shown that. I’m sure he’s looking for the winning form he found at the end of last year and this course suits him perfectly. He also ranks 46th in par 4 scoring.

Good Luck

Billy Horschel to win @ 16/1

Chris Munney
@munneypicks
www.munneypicks.com