munneypicks

2015 Crowne Plaza Invitational

Tournament: We’re off to Colonial. One of the most famous and iconic golf courses we will see all year. Most of this can be attributed to Ben Hogan because of his multiple wins at this place but it’s also known as the course where Annika Sorenstam teed it up with the guys in 2003. I watched Ferety last night and he mentioned that when Annika played here, it was the only time the PGA TOUR servers went down due to being over capacity. This course will test the golfers and should be an exciting tourney throughout. A list of champions and winning scores below:

2014 – Adam Scott (-9)
2013 – Boo Weekley (-14)
2012 – Zach Johnson (-12)
2011 – David Toms (-15)
2010 – Zach Johnson (-21)
2009 – Steve Stricker (-17)

Field: Another weak field as the flagship European tour event takes place this week as well. But we do have Dallas native Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Ian Poulter, and Jimmy Walker.

What to Look For: Analysis showed the most important stat this week is Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. In the last 10 years, no golfer who won here ranked worse than 75th in this stat. The average ranking was 27th. Another very important stat is scoring average. Players who shoot 65-75-67-73 won’t win at Colonial. The big number is out there and players must avoid it. Driving accuracy is important, but this stat can be very deceiving. Many long players who are long and inaccurate can ramp down to a fairway metal off the tee and improve their accuracy more than normal. Colonial is a ball strikers course. Any course synonymous with Ben Hogan will be. But a par 70 with 2 par 5’s will make you play the par 4’s well and keep it in the fairway. 6 of the last 10 champions here have ranked in the top 10 in par 4 scoring in the season of their win. Par 4 scoring, scoring average, and strokes gained will be high on the radar for us this week.

Picks:

Ryan Palmer e/w*: Palmer is a Texas native with 3 wins on the PGA TOUR. He has 3 top 15 finishes in his last 3 starts at Colonial as well. Palmer ranks 11th in SG: T2G and 7th in scoring average. He’s only 41st in par 4 scoring so that is a concern here.

Notes on A Few Others: Spieth is in the field, and he is a rightful favorite. However, after the performance at Sawgrass, it’s easy to stay away at 5/1. Zach Johnson is a second favorite and the price is just a bit short for his inconsistent play. I also contemplated Jimmy Walker, but his inaccuracy off the tee was concerning at 20/1.

Good Luck

Ryan Palmer e/w* @ 30/1

*If your book does not offer e/w betting, place 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to win and 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to place top 5