munneypicks

The Masters 2015

Tournament: Magnolia Lane, Rae’s Creek, Amen Corner, the Green Jacket, what more could a golf fan ask for? The Masters is finally upon us. This is the average golf fan’s favorite event of the year and rightfully so. We’ve had plenty of drama via a playoff in the past. Epic collapses on Sundays  (Both Rory & Greg Norman). Tiger announcing to the world that he had arrived in 1997. The place is just electric. The Masters started in 1934 at Augusta National Golf Club. There is a par 3 tournament on Wednesday, a dinner served by the former champion on Tuesday, and a limited invitation only field as always. There have been many changes to the course and tournament over the years, but the history runs as deep as anywhere outside of the Open Championship in my opinion. Winners from the past 10 years are below:

2014 – Bubba Watson (-8)
2013 – Adam Scott (-9)
2012 – Bubba Watson (-10)
2011 – Charl Schwartzel (-14)
2010 – Phil Mickleson (-16)
2009 – Angel Cabrera (-12)
2008 – Trevor Immelman (-8)
2007 – Zach Johnson (+1)
2006 – Phil Mickleson (-7)
2005 – Tiger Woods (-12)

Field: Augusta has strict criteria when selecting its’ field for the upcoming Masters. Past Masters champions are always invited. Winners of qualifying PGA TOUR events within the last year and the top 50 players in the world as well. US, Lat-Am, & European amateur champions will be here as well. Essentially, anybody who’s anybody is in Augusta right now. From Tiger to Rory to Phil to Jordan. You name them, they’re there.

What to Look For: There are some hard and fast rules to live by when it comes to the Masters that make it a little easier to break down the field. Firstly, other than the first two Masters champions, only Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 has won the Masters on his first attempt. So players making their debut are automatically axed from my book. Secondly, some of the past champions have no chance here. Ben Crenshaw, Ian Woosnam are two that come to mind. They are just here because who turns down an Augusta invite? Also, no one has won here after missing the cut in their previous appearance since Tiger in 1997. Tiger is more an exception than a rule, so I find that to be a solid angle here. Augusta has the trickiest greens and nuances players will ever see. Knowing them well is certainly key to success here. Lastly, is distance. Looking at the past champions, eight of the ten above are long players. Zach Johnson won in an odd year where +1 won the tournament and while I won’t completely disregard shorter players, it is known that they’re at a disadvantage here. The par 5’s are crucial at Augusta and playing them well is the way to win here. The key is holding your own on the other 14 holes on the course. Par 5 scoring will be very important as well. The key stat I liked most was Stroked Gained Tee to Green. The PGA TOUR has data on this back to 2004. Only twice since then has the champion finished the year outside the top 30 in that category. Zach Johnson and Trevor Immelman. In summation, play the par 5’s well, hit it far, and take cover on the other 14 holes. Another point I want to make is past success at Augusta. Finding players who have shot in the 60’s in the past is mandatory. Zach Johnson won without previously shooting in the 60’s but other champion in the past 10 years has done so.

Free Pick:

Jason Day to win: Day loves Augusta. He sat out for 2 months last year with injury eyeing Augusta and no matter the state of his game, he always seems to contend here. Day finished 20th last year coming off injury but I think he’s an even better player now. He won earlier this year at the Farmers and made some comments that really changed my tune with Day. He almost sounded as if he told himself he wasn’t going to lose. Day hasn’t missed a cut this season. He’s shot 3 rounds in the 60’s and the ever impressive 64 in the 2nd round in 2011. We obviously have to steer clear of Bubba, Jordan, and Rory, but I think Day is the only favorite that offers good value.

*I’ll be back later this week with some prop bets. Augusta offers some of the best opportunities to bet obscure markets like top European, top debutant, will there be a hole in one, etc.

Good Luck

Chris Munney
@munneypicks
www.munneypicks.com