2015 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Tournament: This week we travel up the coast of California to the Monterrey peninsula to the iconic course, Pebble Beach. The tournament will be very similar to the Humana in that the first 3 rounds will be played over 3 courses with a Saturday cut. The tournament’s roots date back all the way to 1937. The pro-am format will bring out celebrities from across all walks. Don Cheadle, Wayne Gretzky, Bill Murray, and Andy Garcia are a few notables that will tee it up this week.
Course: Pebble Beach will be the final course on Sunday for those who do make that cut. Spyglass Hill, Monterrey Peninsula Country Club (Shore Course), and Pebble Beach will be played over the 1st 3 days by all the golfers.
Pebble Beach – Par 72 – 6800 Yards
Spyglass Hill – Par 72 – 7000 Yards
Monterrey Peninsula – Par 70 – 6800 Yards
Field: A lot of big names have taken the week off as only 3 of the top 10 players in the world are in the field this week. Not really sure the cause of that, but we will try to take advantage of the weaker field.
What to Look For: There are a few important factors in play this week. The four that top my list are par 4 scoring, par 5 scoring, recent performance, and historical performance. Looking back at winners, you would notice that almost all have had top 25 finishes in recent starts at Pebble Beach and they have mostly all have had success in the year of their win. This eliminates a good portion of the field. The par 4’s on these courses are tough and it will be a challenge to play these under par. It could be the key to the week.
Picks:
Jimmy Walker to win: All signs point to Walker this week. I usually don’t back players defending a title but I have reason to steer clear of the other names at the top of the betting odds this week. Walker has become quite the all-around player. He has four top 10’s in his last four starts here. Along with three top 10’s in his last three events on TOUR. Walker plays the par 4’s and 5’s well and has proven he can putt on the Poa Annua greens.
Hunter Mahan e/w: Mahan isn’t playing extremely well this year but showed some flashes in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago. Mahan ranks 2nd in par 4 scoring this year and is also above average on the par 5’s. Mahan finished runner up here in 2011 and has finished in the top 16 every year since.
Spencer Levin e/w: A bit upset Levin played so well last week but he’s always on my west coast radar. Levin has 3 top 15 finishes in five starts at this tournament. Clearly far better than his week to week play so that tells us a fair bit about how much he likes it here. Levin struggles a bit on the par 5’s but should dominate the par 4’s this week.
Rory Sabbatini e/w: Great price here on Rory. 3 top 25 finishes in 2015 make me believe that Sabbs may be getting a bit of his old magic back. He hasn’t played well recently at Pebble but did finish runner up in 2006 and 15th in 2011. 32ndin par 5 scoring this year and 11th in par 4 scoring. I think the value here is amazing.
Alex Prugh e/w: Prugh is from the west coast and those ties may come in handy this week. Prugh is at the sweet age of 30 which is a turning point for many golfers. Especially those without Tiger/Rory talent. Prugh has two top 30 finishes here in three starts and finished 5th last week at Torrey. Another value play here.
7u Jimmy Walker to win @ 9/1
2u Hunter Mahan e/w* @ 30/
0.75u Spencer Levin e/w* @ 75/1
0.75u Rory Sabbatini e/w* @ 95/1
0.50u Alex Prugh e/w* @ 175/1
*If your book does not offer e/w betting, place 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to win and 1 bet of the stated unit on the golfer to place top 5
Chris Munney
@progolfmoves
munneypicks 
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